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How some economists believe that people think about the future. Nobody can predict the future perfectly; but rational expectations theory assumes that, over time, unexpected events (shocks) will cancel out each other and that on average people’s expectations about the future will be accurate. This is because they form their expectations on a rational basis, using all the information available to them optimally, and learn from their mistakes. This is in contrast to other theories of how people look ahead, such as adaptive expectations, in which people base their predictions on past trends and changes in trends, and behavioral economics, which assumes that expectations are somewhat irrational as a result of psychological biases. The theory of rational expectations, for which Robert Lucas won the Nobel prize for economics, initially became popular with monetarists because it seemed to prove that Keynesian policies of demand management would fail. With rational expectations, people learn to anticipate government policy changes and act accordingly; since macroeconomic fine tuning requires that governments be able to fool people, this implies that it is usually futile. Subsequently, this conclusion has been challenged. However, rational and near-rational expectations have become part of the mainstream of economic thought.
Industry:Economy
An influential economist of the Austrian school, who won the Nobel Prize for economics in 1974 for his theory of the business cycle many years after this body of work seemed to have been disproved by Keynes. Born in 1899, Hayek attended his home-town University of Vienna after the First World War. He was attracted to socialism until he read a pioneering Austrian economist, Ludwig von Mises, on the subject, after which, he said, “the world was never the same again”. Hayek argued that the business cycle originated from expanded credit creation by banks, which was followed by firms and people making mistaken capital investments in producing things for which the market turns out to be smaller (or larger) than expected. But after an initially enthusiastic reception, the Austrian business-cycle theory lost out in policy debates to Keynes's General Theory. After the Second World War, Hayek was a leading member of the Chicago school along with Milton Friedman, among others. Hayek was a noted proponent of the free-market system and a critic of state planning. His 1944 book, The Road to Serfdom, anticipated the demise of command economies that sought to suppress price signals. This prediction came from his belief in the limits of human reason and has faith in the superior ability of capitalism to make efficient use of limited information and to learn by trial and error. His views, which echo Adam Smith’s invisible hand, are said to have inspired the free-market economic reforms undertaken in the 1980s by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. He died in 1992.
Industry:Economy
The ability of people to undertake economic transactions with people in other countries free from any restraints imposed by governments or other regulators. Measured by the volume of imports and exports, world trade has become increasingly free in the years since the second world war. A fall in barriers to trade, as a result of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and its successor, the World Trade Organization, has helped stimulate this growth. The volume of world merchandise trade at the start of the 21st century was about 17 times what it was in 1950, and the world's total output was not even six times as big. The ratio of world exports to GDP had more than doubled since 1950. Of this, trade in manufactured goods was worth three times the value of trade in services, although the share of services trade was growing fast. For economists, the benefits of free trade are explained by the theory of comparative advantage, with each country doing those things in which it is comparatively more efficient. As long as each country specializes in products in which it has a comparative advantage, trade will be mutually beneficial. Some critics of free trade argue that trade with developing countries, where wages are usually lower and working hours longer than in developed countries, is unfair and will wipe out jobs in high-wage countries. They want autarky or fair trade. Real-world trade patterns sometimes seem to challenge the theory of comparative advantage (see new trade theory). Most trade occurs between countries that do not have huge cost differences. The biggest trading partner of the United States, for instance, is Canada. Well over half the exports from France, Germany and Italy go to other European Union countries. Moreover, these countries sell similar things to each other: cars made in France are exported to Germany, and German cars go to France. The main reason seems to be cross-border differences in consumer tastes. But the agricultural exports of Australia, say, or Saudi Arabia's reliance on oil, do clearly stem from their particular stock of natural resources. Also poorer countries often have more unskilled labor, so they export simple manufactures such as clothing.
Industry:Economy
Getting the benefit of a good or service without paying for it, not necessarily illegally. This may be possible because certain types of goods and services are actually hard to charge for--a firework display, for instance. Another way to look at this may be that the good or service has a positive externality. However, there can sometimes be a free-rider problem, if the number of people willing to pay for the good or service is not enough to cover the cost of providing it. In this case, the good or service might not be produced, even though it would be beneficial for the economy as a whole to have it. Public goods are often at risk of free riding; in their case, the problem can be overcome by financing the good by imposing a tax on the entire population.
Industry:Economy
Best guesses about the future. Despite complex economic theories and cutting-edge econometrics, the forecasts economists make are often badly wrong. Indeed, following economic forecasts has been likened to driving a car blindfolded, following directions given by a person who is looking out of the back window. Some of the inaccuracies in forecasts reflect badly designed models; often, the problem is that the future actually is unpredictable. Maybe it would be better to take the advice of Sam Goldwyn, a movie mogul, "Never prophesy, especially about the future. "
Industry:Economy
Production costs that do not change when the quantity of output produced changes, for instance, the cost of renting an office or factory space. Contrast with variable costs.
Industry:Economy
One of the two instruments of macroeconomic policy; monetary policy's side-kick. It comprises public spending and taxation, and any other government income or assistance to the private sector (such as tax breaks). It can be used to influence the level of demand in the economy, usually with the twin goals of getting unemployment as low as possible without triggering excessive inflation. At times it has been deployed to manage short-term demand through fine tuning, although since the end of the Keynesian era it has more often been targeted on long-term goals, with monetary policy more often used for shorter-term adjustments. For a government, there are two main issues in setting fiscal policy: what should be the overall stance of policy, and what form should its individual parts take?
Some economists and policymakers argue for a balanced budget. Others say that a persistent deficit (public spending exceeding revenue) is acceptable provided, in accordance with the golden rule, the deficit is used for investment (in infrastructure, say) rather than consumption. However, there may be a danger that public-sector investment will result in the crowding out of more productive private investment. Whatever the overall stance on average over an economic cycle, most economists agree that fiscal policy should be counter-cyclical, aiming to automatically stabilize demand by increasing public spending relative to revenue when the economy is struggling and increasing taxes relative to spending towards the top of the cycle. For instance, social (welfare) handouts from the state usually increase during tough times, and fiscal drag boosts government revenue when the economy is growing. As for the bits and pieces making up fiscal policy, one debate is about how high public spending should be relative to GDP. In the United States and many Asian countries, public spending is less than 30% of GDP; in European countries, such as Germany and Sweden, it has been as high as 40-50%. Some economic studies suggest that lower public spending relative to GDP results in higher rates of growth, though this conclusion is controversial. Certainly, over the years, much public spending has been highly inefficient. Another issue is the form that taxation should take, especially the split between direct taxation and indirect taxation and between capital, income and expenditure tax.
Industry:Economy
For many years, economists had little interest in what happened inside firms, preferring instead to examine the workings of the different sorts of industries in which firms operate, ranging from perfect competition to monopoly. Since the 1960s, however, sophisticated economic theories of how firms work have been developed. These have examined why firms grow at different rates and tried to model the normal life cycle of a company, from fast-growing start-up to lumbering mature business. The aim is to explain when it pays to conduct an activity within a firm and when it pays to externalize it through short- or long-term arrangements with outsiders, be they individuals, exchanges or other companies. The theories also look at the economic consequences of the different incentives influencing individuals working within companies, tackling issues such as pay, agency costs and corporate governance structures.
Industry:Economy
The firms and institutions that together make it possible for money to make the world go round. This includes financial markets, securities exchanges, banks, pension funds, mutual funds, insurers, national regulators, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States, central banks, governments and multinational institutions, such as the IMF and World Bank.
Industry:Economy
Certificate of ownership of a financial asset, such as a bond or a share.
Industry:Economy
